War possible in the next few years

Carlos Alberto Montaner

A Latin American war could possibly break out in the next few years. Unlike what happened in the 20th century when all confrontations were caused by border disputes, this time the war could be a bloody, multinational conflict triggered by ideological reasons.

All symptoms indicate that behind that likely disaster will be the irresponsible behavior of Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, a quixotic firebrand who is intent in reconstructing the continent according to his revolutionary fantasies.

Refuge in Venezuela

The recent episode with Rodrigo Granda is only a sample. Granda, a leader of Colombian communist narcoguerrillas called the FARC, was kidnapped in Caracas by Venezuelan military men who charged a hefty reward for delivering him to the government of Colombian President Alvaro Uribe.

Granda was one of hundreds, perhaps thousands, of subversive Colombians who have obtained refuge and aid in Venezuela. An angry Chávez asked Uribe for explanations, but it would have been more reasonable if Chávez had given the explanations, instead of demanding them. What was this sinister character doing on Venezuelan territory, invited to a semiofficial event and carrying a Venezuelan passport in his pocket? Why are communist narcoguerrillas from Colombia camped on Venezuelan territory, and why do their leaders freely enter and leave the so-called Bolivarian Republic?

Venezuela has replaced Cuba as the headquarters of the violent left. A few weeks ago, a former Peruvian Army officer, Antauro Humala, after proclaiming himself a disciple of Hugo Chávez and accompanied by several dozen insurgents, seized a couple of military installations, murdered four policemen and attempted unsuccessfully to launch a nationwide revolution.

In October 2003, Bolivian President Gonzalo Sánchez de Losada was forced to resign after a series of mass uprisings organized by radical groups apparently financed by Venezuela. At the head of the protests marched Evo Morales, an indigenous and profoundly anti-West leader of the coca growers.

Imperial dream

Simultaneously, Chávez uses the river of petrodollars that is pouring into the country, as a result of rising fuel prices, to strengthen his army's offensive capability. Pending is the purchase of 50 MiG-29 warplanes from Russia, along with a large number of tanks, helicopters and armored vehicles.

The purpose of so much materiel is easy to guess: an eventual confrontation with Colombia, intended not only to liquidate Uribe's ''oligarchic and pro-United States'' government but also to initiate the reconstruction of the Greater Colombia (including Ecuador), the grand homeland sought unsuccessfully by Simón Bolívar in the first half of the 19th century.

But this dangerous imperial Bolivarian dream has another, even more-dangerous detour: a war against Chile, intended to destroy that bastion of ``neoliberalism.''

Whether governed by the Christian Democrats or the Social Democrats (as it is led today by Ricardo Lagos), Chile is seen as a threat by the left because of its defense of free markets, democracy and free international commerce.

Chile's success

The left does not forgive Chile for its Free Trade Agreement with the United States or similar accords it has signed with the European Union and Japan; or for the success of the liberal style of government that has led to a reduction in poverty, from 42 percent to 18 percent, in 14 years of democracy, while Chile moved to the head of Latin America.

To confront these dangers, an intense diplomatic effort by the United States, Mexico and the Organization of American States will be needed, while countries like Brazil and Argentina decide whether they will allow themselves to be dragged by Chávez into the conflict or to behave sensibly.

If the Chaco War between Paraguay and Bolivia (1932-1935) cost 90,000 lives, the war that this Venezuelan caudillo has in mind could triple that toll. Let's pray it won't come to that.

Enero 25, 2005

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