Barack Obama can crack Cuba open - but only after Fidel Castro dies

NEW YORK DAILY NEWS
By Carlos Alberto Montaner
Monday, December 29th 2008, 4:00 AM

On Jan. 1, the Cuban revolution turns 50 years old. Raul Castro, one of the fathers of that revolution, recently reiterated his desire to talk with Barack Obama - returning the hand Obama offered repeatedly over the course of the presidential campaign. If Obama follows through on his plan, he must do so with eyes wide open.

Raul has three objectives: to gain access to soft credit so he can import American goods; to attract hundreds of thousands of American tourists, and to gain the release of five of the 14 Cuban spies captured in 1999 by the FBI. Nine of them admitted their culpability, made deals with judges and prosecutors, were given very light sentences and have already been reintegrated to life in the United States.

Once he attains the first two objectives, Raul would be able to essentially liquidate what remains of the embargo against his country.
With the third, he would please his ailing big brother Fidel, who is determined not to die until his "hardest" agents return to Cuba.

Obama - who, since the election, has sent some pretty tough signals to the world with the national security team he has chosen - should harbor no illusions regarding Cuba. Ten Presidents before him have bashed heads with the Castro brothers. It is unlikely that he would be the exception.

The watchword now should be patience. It is probable that, during Obama's first term, things will begin to change inside the island. The starting point would be the death of Fidel, who has been slowly expiring since the summer of 2006. While it is known that most of those in the structure of power would like a profound reform, the old Comandante, a stubborn Stalinist, prevents it.

This is important: While Fidel is alive, any significant concession the Obama administration makes to Havana will be counterproductive. It will be interpreted as saying, "Fidel Castro is right, and Cuba's totalitarian model need not change."

But the moment Fidel disappears, timely American intervention - a goodwill gesture - makes sense, even if it must be made to Raul Castro. To bolster the reformist forces, Obama should send an explicit message that the United States is willing to generously help transform the country into a peaceful and reasonably prosperous democracy.

That must be the objective now: Cuba's peaceful transformation into a stable democracy with freedoms and respect for human rights. A nation similar to Costa Rica, with good relations with its neighbors and the United States; a nation that, far from expelling its people for lack of opportunities, is able to absorb the thousands of exiles who would return to Cuba if living conditions were acceptable there.

We should accept nothing short of that, discarding any temptation to work hand-in-glove in Cuba with a tyranny like the one in China, with a kleptocracy like the one in Russia, or with a military dictatorship. That would only postpone the problem, not solve it. For almost all of the 20th century, the United States played the "our-S.O.B." card throughout Latin America, and the results were dreadful. After Gen.Anastasio Somoza came the Sandinistas. After Fulgencio Batista, communism came to Cuba. Washington preached democracy and protected dictatorships.

It makes no sense to revive that strategy in the post-Castro era.

Instead, after Fidel dies, Obama should gradually reduce the economic sanctions - provided the dictatorship releases political prisoners or relieves its pressure on dissidents. He should elevate the rank of the United States' diplomatic representation to the category of embassy and facilitate sports and academic exchanges.

But decide right now that we will never settle for anything short of a vibrant and productive democracy. If we help usher in anything less, there's no sense even trying.